It is likely that any Copenhagen deal will be struck within the next 24 hours if it is to happen at all.
World leaders are due to take personal control of the negotiations from 3pm on Friday to attempt to come up with some sort of political declaration on how the world will tackle climate change over the next decade.A leaked UN document which puts together all the emissions pledges on the table shows that the world is on course for global warming of 3 degrees, rather than the 1.5 degrees needed to guarantee the survival of all nations.
Unless President Obama, who is likely to be the last major leader to arrive in the Danish capital, improves the US offers on mitigation and finance, we will not have a deal that avoids catastrophic climate change.
Most of the NGOs following the talks will be watching the endgame on television screens along with the rest of the world: all but 50 civil society observers have been locked out of the Bella Center where the climate change conference is taking place.
This affront to democracy has done nothing but enrage many of us who have followed these talks since they began in Bali in 2007.
The idea that peaceful observers constitute a security threat is not something dreamed up by the Danish police (many other countries take a similar line) but they have executed a particularly heavy-handed lockdown operation.
NGOs have played a critical role in keeping the climate process ‘honest’ and ensuring that the rights of those who are hit hardest by global warming are not completely trampled over.
Their exclusion bodes ill for the final outcome.